I've been doing some work in Prediction Markets for IFTF, and have been particularly interested in the concept of assassination markets: I predict this person will die can be transformed into a price on their head.
The thing that's fascinating is that markets have positivity and negativity built into them all the time. However, with prediction markets, it becomes explicit. A new betting site, BetUs.com, allows people to bet on specific outcomes for global warming.
Will new types of regulation spring up to eliminate the possibility of creating markets in destruction?
Hi --
Interesting.
I floated the notion of PM's to IFTF about two-years ago. They were highly dismissive of the idea. Glad to see now they have finally come around.
IS you idea like Dead Pool?
Dead Pool: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_pool
AM: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market
-j
Posted by: John T. Maloney | April 16, 2007 at 10:41 AM